Friday, August 7, 2009

“Experts” Never Learn (Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff, whose supporters have set up a moneybomb today for his potential run for the US Senate, writes that we shouldn't listen to the fools who say the recession is "over" because they're the same people who didn't see this mess coming in the first place:

Peter Schiff for SenateThere is an inexplicable, but somehow widely held, belief that stock market movements are predictive of economic conditions. As such, the current rally in U.S. stock prices has caused many people to conclude that the recession is nearing an end. The widespread optimism is not confined to Wall Street, as even Barack Obama has pointed to the bubbly markets to vindicate his economic policies. However, reality is clearly at odds with these optimistic assumptions.

In the first place, stock markets have been taken by surprise throughout history. In the current cycle, neither the market nor its cheerleaders saw this recession coming, so why should anyone believe that these fonts of wisdom have suddenly become clairvoyant?

According to official government statistics, the current recession began in December of 2007. Two months earlier, in October of that year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both hit all-time record highs. Exactly what foresight did this run-up provide? Obviously markets were completely blind-sided by the biggest recession since the Great Depression. In fact, the main reason why the markets sold off so violently in 2008, after the severity of the recession became impossible to ignore, was that it had so completely misread the economy in the preceding years.

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1 comment:

jessica said...

Obviously markets were completely blind-sided by the biggest recession since the Great Depression.

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Jessica
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