Wednesday, September 17, 2008

How We’re Doing: First Polling Numbers (BJ Lawson)

BJ Lawson takes his own poll:

As you know, I’m a big believer in transparency in government. That translates into transparency in campaigns, as well — especially since our campaign is supported by so many people. Many have asked for insight into how we’re doing, and tonight we received results from our first poll.

We called a sample of 1,105 households across the district, stratified by precinct. Before we hit the results, let’s review our district’s demographics:

Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 28%
Unaffiliated: 26%

As you can see, while Democrats far outnumber Republicans, Unaffiliated voters and any swing Democrats can provide a margin of victory.

Here is the sample that we polled:

Democrats: 57%
Republicans: 26%
Unaffiliated: 17%

So our sample had significantly more Democrats than the overall district, with slightly fewer Republicans, and significantly fewer Unaffiliateds.

Here are our results:

Price: 56%
Lawson: 31%
Undecided: 13%

Considering that our ten-term incumbent typically wins this district with 65% of the vote, he’s off from his typical pace. Furthermore, the presence of 13% undecided is not exactly bullish for a ten-term incumbent who advertises liberally with taxpayer-financed mailings.

At this point, it appears we have reason to redouble our efforts towards this election. Not only are we maintaining our base, but we picked up five percent from Unaffiliated and Democratic voters — only 26% of our sample was Republican, and we’re polling at 31%. While our incumbent is polling at 56%, the sample was 57% Democratic — and the overall district is only 46% Democratic.

We know it’s time for change. I wouldn’t want to run against change this year. Nor would I want to run against a federal government that follows the Constitution.

Today is Constitution Day — please donate to fund our mail and media campaign, and help us win this election.

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